Table of Contents
1 Introduction
Orbital debris represents a critical threat to space infrastructure and future space development. Despite ongoing efforts for Post Mission Disposal (PMD), the debris population continues to grow due to collisions among existing objects. Active Debris Removal (ADR) has been identified as an essential solution, but establishing a sustainable economic model remains challenging.
The paper draws inspiration from historical local currency experiments, particularly the 1932 Wörgl "stamp scrip" in Austria, which utilized depreciating currency to stimulate local economic activity. This concept is adapted for space debris removal through digital currency tokens that can either depreciate (Reduction-Over-Time) or appreciate (Multiplication-Over-Time) based on designed economic incentives.
Debris Growth Rate
3-5% annually
Even with no new launches
ADR Cost Range
$10-100M
Per removal mission
2 Digital Currency Framework for ADR
2.1 Proof of Disposal (POD) Concept
The core innovation is Proof of Disposal (POD), a blockchain-based mechanism where digital tokens are issued in exchange for verified debris removal. This creates an accountable foundation for solving environmental problems through digital currency, contrasting with many speculative ICOs in practice today.
2.2 Token Economics Design
The system employs two types of token dynamics:
- Reduction-Over-Time: Tokens depreciate, accelerating spending and circulation
- Multiplication-Over-Time: Tokens appreciate, encouraging holding and investment
3 Technical Implementation
3.1 Blockchain Architecture
The system utilizes blockchain as a "promise-fixation device" that maintains immutable records of debris removal verification. Built on Ethereum-like smart contract platforms, it enables unstoppable monetary systems for global space cooperation.
3.2 Dynamic Pricing Model
The economic value of each ADR mission is dynamically estimated using risk assessment algorithms. The pricing model considers:
Token value function: $V(t) = V_0 \cdot e^{\int_0^t r(\tau)d\tau}$
Where $r(\tau)$ represents the time-varying return rate based on debris risk reduction and market dynamics.
4 Experimental Results
The feasibility was evaluated through simulation studies demonstrating that dynamic estimation of ADR economic values and automated token pricing are indeed achievable. The simulation modeled debris population dynamics using the NASA EVOLVE 4.0 algorithm, showing that properly designed token economics can create sustainable funding mechanisms.
Key Findings:
- Dynamic pricing accurately reflects debris risk levels
- Token circulation creates self-sustaining economic model
- Consortium bears virtually no operational costs
5 Analysis Framework
Industry Analyst Perspective
Core Insight
This paper presents a revolutionary but risky proposition: turning space debris—a negative externality—into a tradeable financial asset. The POD mechanism essentially creates a carbon credit system for orbital space, but with significantly higher technical complexity and regulatory uncertainty. Unlike terrestrial environmental markets, space debris removal lacks established valuation metrics and faces profound verification challenges.
Logical Flow
The argument progresses from problem identification (growing debris threat) to historical precedent (local currencies) to technical implementation (blockchain POD). However, the logical leap from Wörgl's stamp scrip to orbital economics overlooks critical differences in scale, verification complexity, and international governance. While the blockchain implementation is technically sound, the economic assumptions require more rigorous validation.
Strengths & Flaws
Strengths: The POD concept represents genuine innovation in space sustainability financing. The dual token dynamics (depreciating/appreciating) show sophisticated economic thinking. The consortium approach wisely distributes risk.
Flaws: The paper underestimates regulatory hurdles—space debris removal intersects with weapons control treaties. The economic model assumes rational actors in a market that doesn't yet exist. Verification of debris removal remains technically challenging and expensive.
Actionable Insights
Space agencies should pilot POD with low-value debris targets to build operational experience. Regulators must develop international standards for debris removal verification. Investors should view this as high-risk, long-term infrastructure play rather than quick cryptocurrency speculation. The technology shows promise, but requires 5-10 years of development and regulatory maturation.
6 Future Applications
The POD framework extends beyond space debris to various environmental remediation challenges:
- Ocean plastic cleanup verification systems
- Carbon sequestration credit markets
- Terrestrial waste management economies
- Post-disaster recovery funding mechanisms
Current prototyping efforts focus on integrating with existing space surveillance networks and developing standardized verification protocols for international adoption.
7 References
- Saito, K., Hatta, S., & Hanada, T. (2019). Digital Currency Design for Sustainable Active Debris Removal in Space. IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems, 6(1).
- Buterin, V. (2014). Ethereum: A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform.
- NASA Orbital Debris Program Office. (2019). Orbital Debris Quarterly News.
- European Space Agency. (2018). Space Debris - Environmental Remediation.
- Liou, J. C. (2011). An active debris removal parametric study for LEO environment remediation. Advances in Space Research.